Below you will see two charts, The 1st is the chart of the available supply of properties for sale in Manhattan (note we view Manhattan as a proxy for real estate in NYC, data is more readily available in Manhattan and robust, though Brooklyn is catching up and we hope to be able to post that sometime in the future) starting on 1/1/2015 and continuing through today 12/1/15. The 2nd is a longer term chart and it goes back to early 2008 when Urban Digs began accumulating the data.
As you can see supply today is a far cry at just over 4,000 units from where it was during the crisis in 2008/2009 when it peaked at 9,194 on 4/28/2009. It bottomed almost 2 years ago on 1/4/2014 at 3,014. So we are 45% below the peak, but 39% above the peak. Not much to glean from those stats, but we can see that the bottoms tend to occur at the end of each year, give or take a few days, and secondarily right around the Labor Day holiday..... Seasonality personified. We also can see that the years from 2009 through early 2014 were marked by lower lows very consistently and we know that prices generally rose strongly throughout this period also. But the end of year low last year, 2014/2015 was visibly higher than the previous 2013/2014, and this year so far the weakness that usually starts in mid-October has been markedly less pronounced. In fact looking at the shorter term 1 year chart, the trend appears to be rising gradually, and the take here is that the end of year weakness will not get to either of the two previous year end lows, in fact it may not even breach this year's end of summer lows of 3,466. The only other time that pattern occurred since this data have been tabulated was in 2008. To be clear we are not predicting a repeat of the financial crisis. This data does appear to be pointing toward a shift in the supply side of the supply demand equation.......... Next up tomorrow, Pending Sales (Demand).
Note: Originally Posted 12/2/2015 on previous website.
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